My Final Seat Predictions

My Final Seat Predictions

Date	PC	Lib	NDP	Other
09/18/2006
Seat Predictions	39	16	0	0
+/-	+11	-10	0	0
Safe Seats	21	8	0	0
Marginal Seats	17	8	1*	0

Methodology: This following projections are obtained by applying the latest poll results (including the latest Omnifacts poll) to UBC Professor Werner Antweiler's Election Forecaster.

As well, from what I have witnessed and heard at the ground level in 11 ridings, I am comfortable in saying that the Liberals have been extremely unsuccessful since week 1 in getting anything to stick to Bernard Lord and the Tories. Nonetheless, I did throw into the mix the fact that Shawn Graham and the Liberals, out of desparation, will go seriously neg this week which will ultimately backfire and, in turn, cost them another 2 seats (originally had the PCs @ 37 seats) Why you ask? Because this will not go over well with the remaining undecided vote that are still giving them a last look and will push 50% of the PC marginals over the top, or 8 seats, giving the Tories a clear margin of victory.

And finally, judging from the Liberal leader's retreat back to Boutouche to campaign in his own riding for a full two days , while trailing, says to me that he is no longer running for Premier, but ultimately for his own seat. The same pattern happened to Liberal leader Francis MacKenzie in Nova Scotia who lost his seat to PC blogger and current Bedford MLA Len Goucher back on June 13th. If I were a Liberal in New Brunswick, I would start campaigning for my political life.

* The NDP marginal seat has a star beside it as it does not represent a possible victory. However, if you are wondering, it does in fact represent the Fredericton-Lincoln riding where Allison Brewer will cost Liberal Greg Byrne his seat by splitting the vote on the left. Thus, increasing the PC seat count from 38 to 39.

Cheers,
Scott